Sample Column rough draft I

Ah, the moment of anticipation. As the second card slides across the felt towards you, you receive that miniature burst of adrenaline. What will it be this time? Pocket Aces? The Cowboys? Maybe the dreaded Fishhooks? Or a pedestrian and forgettable 3/9 that will find the muck almost as quickly as the turn to act comes to you?

Naturally I am referring to those glorious moments before you peek for the first time at your hole cards. Before you look at them everybody has the same chance to win the pot that is about to develop. After everyone sees their hole cards that percentage chance changes immensely. Some cards will get played regardless of what others do, other times they won't get played regardless of what other people do. But every time you have that glimmer of hope that this time you will be looking at a pretty pair of cards.

Your hole cards are the foundation of every hand. They can be used to strong-arm your way to dragging a monster pot when you hit the nuts and someone else pulls a strong hand...but not quite strong enough. They can be used to bluff a better hand off the pot when things break just right. Or they can be used to finesse out a few extra chips when your opponent has a decent hand and you have cards just a pip or two better.

They are also among the most misunderstood. If you hang out around the poker table long enough you will hear someone say, "I hate Pocket Aces. They always lose." When you hear that, you know someone does not understand how to play them to their fullest potential. For example, if you have 4 other people in the pot with you and you are holding the rockets you are going to win about 56% of the time.* If you can get head to head that number goes to an astonishing 85% if the time. If you compare that to a common favorite starting hand that many people say "wins all the time" like J/10s in the same situations the figures are 29% and 58% respectively...a great deal lower. So why do people fear Aces and love J/10s?

It is a matter of expectation. If you have Aces you expect to win. But many times people limp in and let large numbers of people into the pot. Even if they win more often than they lose, they EXPECT to win and quickly forget. However, those times their Aces get cracked stick out in their mind and are weighted much more heavily in the memory bank. It is a much better story to tell about the "fish who stuck in with a 2/7, hit the deuce on the turn and rivered me with a 7 to steal my pot" than to tell about "I raised the Aces, 2 callers, raised the flop, 1 caller, checked the turn and raised the river, he called, he had a pair of Jacks." That is what you EXPECT to happen...so it never crosses your mind again.

By contrast, when you get in cheap with a trash hand because they let you check in the big blind and those pocket deuces make a set on the flop, that makes a good story.

There is a lesson to be learned from this. If you know the approximate percentage chance of winning with a hand against various numbers of people then you can adjust your play accordingly to maximize the number of chips you win when your hand hits or minimize the number of chips you are going to lose by playing that 3/9 "because it was suited". Any two cards can win if they are played right or flop strong...but some hands are going to flop strong a whole lot more than others will.

An easy way to improve your play then is to study which hole cards are worth taking a peek at the flop and which ones should be in the muck. It is worth picking up a book by your favorite author and studying their starting hands to see which hands are going to keep you in the chips and which will send you to the rail if you like how they look to often.


* All statistics courtesy of http://www.beatthefish.com/poker-strategy/texas-holdem-poker-hands.html
Poker Terms:
Cowboys: Pocket Kings
Fishhooks: Pocket Jacks
The Nuts: The best possible hand on the board