Lydias, 9/24 or The Perils of Random Dealers

I was right in that hazy "I want to play/nah, I would rather watch football" area last night. I elected to play. Sadly, that meant I was in my weak "I want to be the well-liked" guy instead of playing a strong game. As a result, there was lots of limping.

Of course, it is easy to excuse that. By limping I get to play a lot more hands and the rationale always goes something like this. "Ooh, 5/7 unsuited. Garbage hand, but a good drawing hand. I can get in for cheap against a lot of players and if I hit, I will take down a nice pot. If I just limp then I can play these."

Okay, good theory. Problem is...5/7 is NOT all that good a drawing hand. There are really only maybe 2 flops that hit that mean anything...4/6/8, 6/8/9...and on the latter I am drawing dead to anyone playing j/10 which is a much better drawing hand. Any pair might look good but is probably beat.

As a result, I sat there bleeding away chips. Because once you get into the limp mode, you can find something to like about almost any hand. And I know why I do it, too. Most of the people there prefer to limp. And they tend to tilt a tiny bit if someone is regularly raising. This is one reason Cowboy hat guy and the two bikers are so effective. They really don't need cards to play because they raise so much that people get tense and underplay their own cards against them. So by blindly and maniacally raising the majority of hands, they win a lot of small pots...and sometimes they hit when people play back as well. My raising is more selective when I am playing my game properly...but no less lethal.

When you play good cards strongly you tend to have good results. When you play cards weakly, and here it matters not if the cards are good, bad or indifferent...if you play your cards weakly, you get beat on some hands and pushed off others.

Case in point. Tall Bill was sitting a couple spots to my left. Early on I picked up the bachelor hand in late position so weakly limped in. This was a raising hand in a limped-into pot, but I let people stay around. Flop came K/rags, two diamonds, giving me top pair, Jack kicker...against a flush draw. Bill bet. He will bet a flush draw and I knew it. I should have bet him out of the hand pre-flop (mistake 1) and here I should have re-raised to price him out of a draw (mistake 2) but instead called (mistake 3). That is the one thing you CAN'T do here. If he is on a draw and hits it, I have no redraws. I suppose running king/pair the board...but that is so unlikely I don't even count it as a draw. Should the Jack of Diamonds hit I have 2 pair...and he has the flush. In other words, I have given him control of the hand and unless he is not actually on a flush draw but is suddenly betting middle pair...something I did not see him do even once all night...he can just keep betting small amounts to control the pot size until the river and if he hits he has, at least against me, the nuts. And I processed all this information between the time he bet and the people between he and I folded...then I called. Weak play begets weak play.

I did bail on the turn...but I paid off 200 to lose a hand I could have won with better play. And paid off a few hundred more limping and folding.

Then I hit an interesting stretch. I picked up 7/8 in the big blind. 4 other people in the hand. After the flop I saw 3 of them give up. I read it in their posture...one of the things I was looking for tonight. Sure enough, it was there, that little shoulder slump you can only see if you are specifically looking for it. It is not deliberate and I doubt any of them even noticed it. Watching, I saw it several times last night and it was helping my reads a lot. Turn, nobody was interested and one guy pre-mucked. River was another high card...I was literally playing the board. Checked to me on the button, I bet 200. Stone cold bluff. Except I knew nobody was interested in paying more to see who had what. They all folded. I did not show. Next hand I picked up 7/8 of hearts. Paired the 7 on the river and won that hand. Next hand was another 7/8 unsuited. Played it. Hit the pair of 7s. Bet. Three callers. Turn was an over card, heavy action, folded. But three consecutive hands with 7/8...weird.

It would get weirder. Picked up pocket 6s in the small blind. Limpers to me. Every instinct I had said make a good, strong raise here. So I weakly completed the bet. Flop came heart, diamond, diamond, nothing too dangerous. Tall Bill bet. I put him on another diamond flush draw. Couple callers. I called. Turn was another heart. He hesitated, then bet. I was positive my read was right, though I adjusted it to now give him either another pair or a gutshot straight draw to go with it. People folded to me. I was doing the math in my head to see if a call was right. It was a good size pot, I had 2 outs, one would complete a heart flush...which I was NOT worried about...and I had the 6 of diamonds, so that did not worry me. I was debating call or fold...when Randy flipped up the river card. It was a 6 of hearts, I saw it out of the corner of my eye. It would give me the winner...except I cannot legitimately call there. I folded face up.

This is one of the drawbacks of having people deal their own. There are a lot of things to watch for; are people betting the correct amounts, acting in turn, is all action completed, etc. Also, keeping the playing surface "clean" so people can assess what is going on; I will cover 2 other dealing mistakes that had potentially huge impacts on the outcome of the night a little later on. This was a mistake by Randy that cost someone...probably Bill...some money. I had just about decided to call, but rather than "bury" the card and draw to the case 6, I mucked. He hesitated about folding, started to show his cards...which led me to believe in retrospect I should have mucked earlier in the hand. Usually when he showed when it was not a showdown it was a spectacularly strong hand; with the current board, that would represent a mis-read by me and trips for him already, or he could have been doing something out of character for him, bluffing, in which case I might have had him beat. But I could not in good conscience call after seeing the river card. But he might have hit an even bigger hand with that 6 so who knows who it hurt? I think everyone thought it was me that was hurt...but there is no guarantee I was going to call his bet on the turn. And the more I think about how he played the hand, especially him wanting to show, I think he had something where trip 6s wouldn't touch him.

In fact, with the 6 being a heart, let's read the hand backwards. River heart, turn heart, one heart on flop. He will bet top pair...maybe he had something like A/Q of hearts and was betting top pair, top kicker. Then when the turn came with a heart he could have had a flush draw and the 6 of hearts could have given me trips, him a flush... so his betting was consistent with how he plays both top/top and flush draw. And his wanting to show his hand would also fit, saying, "Hey, you didn't get screwed...I would have had a flush"...though this also is no certainty. In the end, it does not matter who had who...the inadvertent early card reveal fundamentally altered the flow of chips. And the flow of play, for that matter, because I had to be careful not to tilt there.

Later, I was down to about 1900 with blinds at 1 & 2 and shifted into raise or fold mode. I always play better when I am in that mode...note to self; READ THAT LAST SENTENCE AGAIN. Just sayin'...

Anyway, I picked up pocket 7s. I planned to raise. A raise to 800 would only leave me 1100 so I would be pot committed. I elected to take advantage of my fold equity. All in. Everyone folded and I picked up the blinds and a limper's chips. Hmm. 2300....a couple hands later, last hand before break and blinds would raise, picked up pocket 10s in the big blinds. Todd raised to 325, I came over the top all in, everyone folded and I picked up a nice chunk. Showed my 10s.

First hand back, picked up pocket 10s again. Back to back pocket 10s. This was the night for like hands time after time. Then someone pointed out he hadn't cut the deck...and a misdeal was declared. That hurt because 10s are a powerful hand with 5 players which is what we had at that point.

Again, a simple dealer's mistake cost SOMEONE a huge pot because with just over 10 times the blinds, I had raised to 800...but I was probably going to the felt if someone played back at me. Now, there is no guarantee 10s will hold up. Sure, they are a powerful hand...but they are also quite vulnerable. Any over card can hit...and people will play any two face cards in that situation and especially any Ace....or any two pair or a straight, which some people will play suited connectors there...so I was probably a slight favorite but nothing so overwhelming that I was super confident if I got 2, 3, 4 callers...

Of course, the redeal was not kind. Muck. In fact, lots of mucking followed, got down below 2000 again, all in with pocket 9s. Showed when everyone folded. In big blind, about 3 limpers, all in for 2100. Old Bill called. I said, "This time I have something better...not unbeatable, but better" and flipped up my queens. He said, "I've still got you" as he was counting out his chips. From what and how he said it, i figured I was drawing thin against Kings or Aces, so I was real happy to see him flip up A/J suited. One over, a flush draw. I like my chances. About 67-32 if Card Player's calculator is correct. And here we run into a third major dealing situation.

Bill was the dealer. He dealt out one card, 2...then moved his hand over them. And stopped dealing. He then burned a card. But he was not sure if there were 2, 3, 4, or even 5 cards dealt! Part of it was because there were chips scattered all over, folded cards mixed in with the chips, and his hand laying on top of part of the flop. I had turned my head for an instant, so when i turned back I thought he had flopped a couple extra cards in some bizarre order.

So then he burned another card and flopped the next one, one of the best cards in the deck for me...the 7 of hearts. A complete blank. Of course, I was trying to figure out where we were at. And he started to muck the deck...but there were either 4 or 6 cards out there. So confusing. Finally I figured out what had happened, we put the 7 back as burn card and flipped up the card I did not want to see...a 10. So the 7h now became the burn card, turn was a jack. He had a straight draw, so he could win with any Ace, Jack, or queen...he had 7 outs, about 14% so I was still looking good. And my queens held up. With limp chips, I now had about 5K and was coasting.

What should have been an easy, straightforward situation became a confused mess because of people not used to it dealing. If the chips are collected in one place, the mucked cards in another, the all-in hands properly situated they would be close to the board but never on it so everyone would know how many cards had been flopped and how many were yet to come. Instead it became a huge, confusing situation with cards everywhere mixed in with chips everywhere and poor Bill getting very, very confused. It is an easy, easy fix...just keep a clean playing field and this doesn't happen.

Well, not long after that I got involved with Randy. he has a little tell...when he has an awkward number of chips, he doesn't like to get change...so he will just go all-in. So you need a little bit less of a hand to call him when he is doing that. I was 99% sure I was right...and there was one hand I was really rooting for John to call on.

Not to long before that, Randy had limped in. Flop brought Jack high and almost before the other guy said check he said "No Checking!" and forcefully planted his chips down. I instantly put him on the Jack. Turn was a scare card, giving possible straight draw. He did the shoulder slump. Everyone checked. River was a Jack. Other guy checked and Randy did his "No checking!" chip slam. Other guy folded. I said, "Didn't matter, Randy had his Jacks." I actually thought there was a chance he had quads...he didn't, just trips...but I was glad to be on him so well since in the past I have struggled to read him. Well, later, John was looking for a chance to double up. So was Randy. Randy was real low and did his shoulder slump all-in. I wanted to call but had only an 8/5 off and John was still behind me. I actually thought he would call and would be drawing all but dead against 2 opponents. I put Randy on maybe A/rag, maybe a couple face cards. John had A/rag and folded...and Randy showed the bachelor hand.

So it was just a matter of waiting for my spot to get Randy heads up. Sure enough, a couple hands later he went all-in again...and I picked up A/rag. Sometimes that is an insta-muck...I had mucked A/5, A/7, and A/9 earlier when I was looking for spots to get all my chips in the middle myself. This time I figured I was ahead so called. I was.

Randy had something like K/9, maybe even 2 face cards...but unless he paired he was done. He didn't pair.

I made it to the final table despite my poor early play. Once there I could not catch a hand to save my life. I started looking for a spot to get all the chips in the middle. The blinds raised. I watched and watched and watched... I almost did it with K/4 suited, then remembered 3 things; 1, that is a pretty crappy hand. You are trying to hit the second nut flush, there is really no other hand you can make. With suited cards pre-flop you hit a flush 1 in 16 tries. I would not play that hand with chips, why play it on a hand I could go out on? 2) I was in early position; there were 4 people left to act. 3) All 4 of those people had a LOT of chips and would not hesitate to call if they could take someone out. I wisely folded. I briefly regretted it when the flop's first card was a King. I regretted it less when I saw the flop was all suited...and obviously not the cards I had folded.

Next hand I picked up K/4 for a second consecutive hand, but this time unsuited. I reached for my chips, then my brain started working.

Fold. Fold. Blinds went up. I was all the way down to 800 chips with blinds at 3/6. I picked up pocket 10s in the big blind, raised it my last 200, 2 callers. The flop was sad. 7/8/10. Sure, I had trips...but the way Jerry jumped I knew I was in trouble. I put him on the J/9. First guy checked, he bet, and I almost mucked my 10s. Then I decided to see if I could get lucky and get the board to pair itself. I commented I had thought I was good when I hit the trips...and before I could complete it he said, "They are no good" at which point I completed my sentence with "until you looked like you had J/9." He flipped up his cards...no jack. But he did have a 6 to go with his 9. So I was drawing to actually a good number of outs; 1 10, 3 9s, 2 8s, 2 7s, and, after the turn, 3 4s. 11 outs, close to a quarter of the time my redraw wins the pot. This was one of the 75% of times...which was fine. Even if I win I am on death watch with just 2400 chips...4 times the blinds...so I will be all in momentarily.

A mixed evening once more. Lately I have been sloppy with my reads but tonight they were very, very solid. But I was playing weakly and thus had a soft 5th place finish. Not where I should be.