Lydias, 9/3 (Labor Day)

I have been doing a bit of thinking about my game. And I have decided I have truly been playing some awful poker. Oh, sure, as often as not I seem to end up with a decent chip stack. But that is as much a matter of luck as anything. I have been making some plays that might work against weaker competition but against better competition will quickly result in being on the felt.

Now, to be sure there has been some decent poker in there. While I was taking the game serious at Mixers I was doing really well. Once I started playing my "win quick or go home" game it wasn't too long before I was felted. And my reads have, at times, been very solid. It is not often you will see me lay down top pair on the flop to a bet by a frequent bluffer such as I did to Todd a week ago. Yet I was correct to do so. So I guess from that standpoint it has been okay.

However, I have been using the excuse that it doesn't matter how I do since I won't be at the final table to allow myself some lax and lazy play...limping in, not raising, never bluffing, playing ABC poker with marginal hands. Sure, a few times I have gotten lucky and hit some big, big hands...although even there I somewhat deliberately misplayed them and took down far less than I could have on the theory I really don't want to put anybody out. Bad theory.

I have come to the conclusion that this is a form of tilt. I am allowing myself to play less than my optimal game. By so doing I will do two things:

1) I will prevent myself from improving.

Practice, practice, practice goes the mantra. Well, it is true...practice does help. So does repetition. And so does experience. Knowing certain things will work...and when...makes a difference. Take a key hand from Monday for example.

Under the gun I picked up A/J of Hearts. I raised to 3 times the big blind. I have learned that at 3 times the big blind I get some callers but not so many that I cannot still win the hand. At 4 times the big blind I typically either just pick up the blinds or else only get called by rockets or cowboys. Also, 4 times seems to set people on tilt and cause them to play back maniacally. I can handle people playing back. When I raise I have a hand that can play well against someone else with a plan. But when people play maniacally, they might stay in with anything from a 3/4 (such as Randy did in the consolation game) to a legit hand. And maniacs playing back are likely to hit 2 pair on a ragged flop. Sure, they will miss it MOST of the time...but maniacal play is virtually impossible to read. Hence practice and experience have combined to set my typical raise...I say typical and not default because certain elements will adjust it. Anyhow, sure enough I got a couple callers...and the flop came down 3 low diamonds. Danny checked, I raised just as if I had hit. Everyone but Danny folded...he hesitated a long time and then called. Lately I have played with Danny a few times so I read him as having either over cards or a draw. With his calling of my initial raise from the big blind he could have a slightly weaker hand to call...but unless he was on a diamond draw he missed it completely. Turn was a 10 of clubs. I bet again and this time he did not even hesitate, he folded. He ended up showing K/J clubs...one of the possible hands I had put him on because of past experience.

Of course, part B of that was raising even after I missed it. Lately I have gotten sloppy and lazy and not done the continuation bet, telling myself, "They are just river rats who will chase and hit a 2 to beat me anyway."

Great! Please, keep chasing, because even if you DO hit that crap...you are, in the long run, paying me so you can chase with low odds of improving enough to beat me. But practicing playing correctly allows me to call on the experience of having succeeded at what I need to do. I then will bet at orphan pots when I get the correct feel...not a "hunch" but a read on the group collectively that an authoritative bet will get them to fold. I know you can't bluff out an entire table but there are times when a simple Ace high is the best hand, too. When I know I have the best hand, even without a pair, I do not think of it as a bluff so much as I do as it being a value bet.I can only read the table correctly when I have been doing it from time to time and when I call on the experience of the "feel" of the table when I did it before.

Which leads to point 2

2) My performance and abilities will degrade.
To play my best I need to be factoring in a lot of things:

A) Position. Where am I in relation to who raises, who calls, who check-raises, who bluffs, how many people are left to act.

B) Starting hands

c) Who is in the hand

D) What sort of reads do I have on the people most likely to be in the hand

E) What is my Table Image at any given moment

F) Odds, both pot and otherwise

There are more, but those are the most obvious.

When I don't play my best I fall into bad habits. I limp with virtually any 2 cards. I don't raise when I know I should, I price people into pots and let them run me down, I lose pot after pot that either I should not be in anyhow or else had a lead & lost because of poor play, occasionally on the part of my opponents...which can't be helped...and more often because of my own poor play, usually timid play. I cannot count the number of times I have had the best but vulnerable plan and, through my raising just the minimum instead of a real bet, let them stay in with a trash hand because it was cheap to stay in, then they hit a "miracle card" to swipe the pot. That is not their fault...it is mine for giving them staggeringly good odds to draw to ridiculous hands. That is bad play on my part.

Timid play is bad because I play as if I am afraid to lose the chips. That is a sure formula for losing them...sure, I slow the loss but never give myself the opportunity to win them. Timid, cowardly play is the same as handing my chips to whoever plays with courage and the willingness to take a chance.

A fine example would be middle pair. When I am playing poorly I fold them instantly. When I am playing well I will sometimes play middle...or, depending on who is in the hand, bottom...pairs. But I don't play them blindly. I consider my odds...am I just drawing to the trips or 2 pair? If I hit them, will it be enough to give me the lead? Or am I drawing to other outs as well...maybe a gut shot straight or backdoor flush draw? None of them, alone, provides enough outs. However, combined, sometimes they do.

In one hand I played a 6/8 spades when I was able to limp from late with about 4 others in the pot. That is where limping is good...if I hit it hard and someone else hits as well I can get paid, possibly by 2 or three people in a hand they will have a hard time reading. Conversely, if someone raises a few people out I will fold it. As luck would have it the flop brought a 10 of diamonds, 8...hearts maybe? and a 5 of spades. I had middle pair, weak kicker, backdoor straight and flush draws. I knew who was in the pot and the guy on the button will bet if nobody else does. I bet as if I had top pair, couple callers including him. Sure enough the turn was a 9 of spades giving me flush and gut shot straight draws. Normally after I bet he will give me the free card on the turn which is one reason I did so. So I checked. He raised. I revised my estimate of his hand from 8s to 10s. And here is where secondary draws come into play.

His raise was not particularly large. In fact, I was getting about 8-1 on my money to call (based on how many other people were in the pot) with the potential to bust him if the right card fell. So now it was time to figure out if calling was a good idea. After all, he could still have the 8 and a better kicker. He might have a pair of 9s or 10s. I would even believe he had 2 pair. Or he could be on the same straight draw I was or a similar one. He could even be on the flush draw and he is a player who will bet on draws. So my outs were as follows: 8 for trips, 6 for 2 pair, 5 for 2 pair, 9 for two pair, 10 for 2 pair, or 7 for a straight or any Spade for a flush...27 outs, though a few of them duplicate for a net of 22. Let's take a look at those outs.

I figured him for the 8 or 10...let's say we assign 40% to each likelihood with 5% each on the 9 or a bluff. If we both have trip 8s I am beat more than likely so I am not counting the 8 as an out. Same for pairing any of the others..if he has an 8 and better kicker or the pair of 10s then any time the board pairs for me it pairs for him and gives him trips if he has the 10 and it is the 10 the board pairs. So those outs are out. That leaves me with the 7 for a straight or any spade, 12 outs. That gives me about 24% chance to win the pot or 3-1 dog...and I am getting 8-1 on my money. Up front it COULD look like I am almost a favorite if I discount the outs that I believe help me and make him the winner. The only card that I discounted that maybe I shouldn't is pairing my 6.

So this is one time when, even believing I am beat, I am going to call because, even though I LOSE the pot more often than I win it, in the long run I come out ahead.

I should point out this is an example of a time when the outcome of a given hand does not necessarily reflect whether I played it well or not. Some people would argue the initial raise was a poor play. However, several times I had already raised with middle pairs and taken down the pots. I am actually pretty far ahead on that move. It is not something I will win the pot with every time and I know that. But by so doing I mix up my play (not just betting the nuts or the likely best hand) and taking down a lot of small pots. So when I make that raise and end up getting deeper into a pot, sometimes I will run into someone who checked the better hand. No big deal. And when it gives me the potential to get in cheap and possibly take down a huge pot then I am playing well even if I lose a specific pot. In this case, Don took it down but I felt fine with that. He had the better hand, I had the better draw. In some future game I will get involved in similar hands, lose a few times, win a couple times. The times I lose I will be down a few chips, the time(s) I hit it I will be up a boatload. When I lose I will not be hurt badly and will be in good shape in the tournament (I don't play those hands when I am low on chips) and when I win I will be in great shape to go deep. It is a case of losing when I play well.

By the same token, later I had pocket kings and raised from early position. Couple callers including Danny. I have a GREAT read on Danny. I have yet to stay in a hand with him where he has me beat at the river. (How is that for a guarantee the next hand I am in with him I will stay to the river and lose?) Once he bluffed me out of a hand where I thought he had trip Aces when in fact he had the exact hand I had...J/7. We would have split the pot with Aces up (we both paired our jacks), King kickers. Well, the hand I am discussing now, the flop was beautiful for me, no straights, flushes, or Aces. I raised it up, he called. I actually put him on a pair here but knew I was ahead. Turn was an Ace. I picked up his reaction. I checked, he bet, we were the only two in the hand, I pitched my cards in the muck saying, "Nah, you caught your ace, nice hand, Danny." He gave his Cheshire Cat grin and showed his A/7...and yep, he had 2 pair.

That was one time where the odds were wrong to chase. I had 2 outs to improve, the Kings. I believe he has the Ace as surely as if he was playing with his hand face up. That means if the board pairs, yes, I have 2 pair...but so does he. There is no straight. There is no flush. That means his 2 pair mean nothing. I am drawing against the Aces with 1 card to come. The second pair is just gravy for him. Even without it, I am drawing to 2 outs...about 4%. I am going to lose 25 times for every once I win that one, more or less. Let's be generous and call me a 24-1 dog. I am getting about 5-1 on my money in this particular pot. My cards almost beat his bet into the muck, though to be honest my analysis when playing live went about this deep: "He hit his Ace, I am too far behind."

I guess that goes back to experience, too. When someone has an over pair to mine I know the odds of beating them are staggeringly high unless I have other outs...straight or flush draws...and it is virtually never worth chasing unless I think I can bluff them out of the pot. Danny is not a guy you will bluff out of many pots.

Of course, I think those hands show that my attitude change led to playing better. I played strong hands and I played them aggressively. When I had nothing I folded, when I had a hand worth playing...I made them pay.

Other examples:
Pocket 9s. I raised, got a few callers. Right then I knew I was in trouble. 1 caller, maybe 2 and they might miss. With 4 callers...no way was this hand holding up unless I flopped trips. Sure enough, flop was all high cards. One raise, one call before it got to me, I folded.
Few hands later, pocket 2s. Raised from middle position after a couple of people limped in. BB called. Flop was ragged, mostly middle cards. I raised, he folded.
Pocket Jacks, raised, everyone folded.
10s, raised, had one caller, a re-raise, a caller to that, folded.

All of those, in those cases, I think I took strong hands, played them strongly, and played them correctly. When I am playing poorly I will limp with the 2s and lose the pot. I will probably limp with the 9s and lose less. I will limp with the jacks and lose. I will limp with the 10s and get raked over the coals to a hidden good hand.

By playing correctly and aggressively I get rid of the trash hands that flop 2 pair, I get rid of the people on long draws, and take down a lot more small pots which in turn allows me to absorb the hits when someone stays in and hits a gut shot or some such nonsense.

It also illustrates that playing well does not necessarily mean being dominant and playing poorly does not necessarily mean having no chips. I actually would have hit the final table in about every week for the last several Mondays even though I have not played particularly well. So we will see what happens if I actually keep playing correctly.