Rough Draft, Sample Column II

One of the most underused but extremely valuable skills in Texas Hold 'Em is knowing your "outs" and how often you will hit them.

An "out" is any card which turns your currently losing hand into a winner. Imagine that you could play with all the cards face up. You have a K/Jo. Your opponent has Pocket Aces. The flop comes Q/10/4 rainbow. Your opponent bets. Should you call?

The first thing to consider is how likely you are to get the card you need to overtake your opponent's lead. We know you would lose the hand if it ended right now. However, there are several cards that change the outcome. Either of the 2 remaining Aces give you the nut straight and any 9 also completes the straight. There are 6 cards that turn your losing hand into a winner. You could also hit runner-runner Kings, Jacks, or one of each...though in the latter case your 2 pair are no good since it gives your opponent the nut straight. For simplicity sake, then, we will just take the most likely scenario...hitting either an Ace or 9 for your own straight.

There are 6 cards that help you. These 6 cards are your "outs". Any one of them turns your hand into the winner. Now that we know how many outs we have we need to figure out how often we are going to hit them. Many people fear this next step because it involves mathematics...but it is such a basic level of math that you should easily be able to do it in your head even if you have only the most rudimentary level of math skills.

A good rule of thumb is to multiply the number of outs you have by 2 for each card to come. This gives you a close approximation of your percentage chance to win the hand. Let's walk through the above example. You have 6 outs after the flop. So multiplying 6x2=12. And there are 2 cards to come so multiplying 12x2=24. After the flop you have 24% chance or about a quarter of the time you will complete your straight. How close was our rule of thumb? Well, typically on an open ended straight draw you will hit it about 34% of the time*...but that is with 8 outs. We had 6 outs because our opponent held 2 of them. Adding in the 2 outs we are missing, we would have had 32% (8x2=16, 16x2=32) which, for something you can do quickly and easily in your head without having to memorize a lot of charts is pretty good.

There is one more thing to consider, however. What if the turn is an Ace? You have to be feeling pretty good at this point...you have the nut straight. However, you have given your opponent a redraw. Now he has a set. If the board pairs itself, he will make a full house to defeat your straight. This is a good opportunity to test your new found skills. What are his chances of making his full house? Work through it yourself, then check the answer at the end of the column.

Let's look at one other factor with outs. Sometimes even if you make your hand it will lose to someone else who makes a better hand. What if instead of pocket Aces your opponent had A/8 of Hearts in our example and the flop came with the Q/10 in our Q/10/4 flop are Hearts? We still have the same outs as before, the Aces and 9s to make our straight. Now, however, if the Ace or 9 of Hearts falls, we make our straight but lose to their Flush. So how many outs do we have now? We know what 7 cards are...our hole cards, our opponents' hole cards, and the flop. Of the 45 cards to come, 8 make our straight...but 2 of those cards also make our opponents flush. Therefore we now have just 6 outs even though 8 cards make our hand.

Now that you know how to calculate your outs and approximate how often you make your hand, be sure not to go overboard with it. Having a 3/7 in hand and seeing an A/Q/9 flop, if someone bets from early position, don't bother counting your outs. Just fold. You are so far behind it is not worth chasing the impossible dream. Play smart and you will have a valuable tool when deciding which hands you might have that are currently losing but have a good chance to run down your opponent and which hands you are holding that are total losses.


Answer: About 20%. He has 10 outs: 3 Queens, 3 Tens, 3 4s, and even the Ace. 10x2=20.
Odds courtesy of http://www.holdempoker4u.com/holdem_probability.html