Sample Column 3, rough draft

Sometimes there is a hand where one group of solid players believes it is correct to make a call while an equally talented group disagrees. In those instances it comes down to personalities. Let's examine such a hand.

There are two primary players in the hand.

Our hero has been hot, catching a lot of hands. As a result he has played a lot of hands and has a loose-aggressive image. His last few hands have seen him win with some aggressive betting, but on the most recent hand he played he laid down pocket 6s to a flop of 10/K/A rainbow.

The villain has been playing tight all tournament. During the most recent hand he played, his bet got someone to state, "You have been playing tight all night," as they folded. Yet the villain has been all in 3 times by this point.

The blinds are at 300/600 with 8 players. It is folded to the hero on the button. With the large stack, he looks at pocket 3s. He raises to 4 times the blind, 2400. The villain, in the small blind, comes over the top for 4600 more. The big blind gets out of the way.

Should the hero call? There is 5400 in the pot (2400 from hero and villain, 600 from the big blind) and he has to call 4600 to win 10,000. If he calls he will no longer be big stack, though he will still be in second place.

He is getting 2.1-1 on his money. If his opponent has a pair he is a significant dog, 4-1 or higher and it does not make sense to call. If his opponent has just over cards he is a slight favorite, about 52-48. With any over cards he is getting the correct price to call. This being the case he has to determine whether his opponent has a pair or if he just has over cards.

This is where you need to take playing styles into account. Remember our hero has been splashing chips around a bit. Classic poker theory therefore tells you he has a wide range of starting hands. Additionally, he raised from the button, a classic stealing position.

Conversely, the villain just was credited with playing tight and has been all-in several times. If he called the initial raise he was pretty much priced into the hand regardless of what came on the flop. With 5400 in the pot and 4600 chips remaining he would have been getting the correct price to call almost any flop. By raising all-in he takes advantage of possible fold equity, particularly if the button raise was a marginal action or if he was making a move. The all-in raise is therefore the correct move if he was going to play the hand at all.

It also widens the range of hands he is likely to play in this situation. The odds he has a pair are significantly less than the odds he has a pair.

Our hero did, in fact call and the villain flopped up K/7 of diamonds. Now that we know the cards, was the hero still correct to call with only pocket 3s? As it turns out, the 3s are a slight favorite, 50-49% with a slight chance of a split pot.*

In this case the 3s held up, eliminating the villain. It is important to remember, however, that poker is not about short term results. Even had the villain prevailed on this hand, it was still a statistically correct call and in the long run will have positive results for the hero.

So the next time you have a low pocket pair, remember to consider position, the table image of those to follow, and that a pair has the advantage over an unpaired hand and you might have a new tool to add to your arsenal.

*http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_odds/texas_holdem#