Was I wrong?

In my last post I talked about a certain individual and called them a horrible player. Here is an interesting anomaly; in the last few months, no other player has won more than 2 tournaments but he has won 3. How is that possible if he is a horrible player?

A lot of it goes to the nature of these tournaments. They are typically 1 - 2 tables. They run about 3 hours. In that amount of time someone who plays heavily on the "luck factor" is going to do fairly well. It only takes hitting a couple of ridiculous draws to win enough chips to pay for a lot of missed draws. However, in a longer tournament that type of player is going to come back to the pack.

I would use the example of the 3 month tournament at West Linn. Mr. R was at the same table as me. On one of the first hands I flopped a set, bet it, was re-raised by Dee, and he called. Turn I bet, Dee raised, he called. River completed a straight that, on the flop, he had to hit runner runner to hit a double gut shot (he had to hit a 9 & 10 to hit the straight) straight at the ignorant end. I read him right, Dee read him wrong, and he added almost triple the chips to his stack.

He then hit another long-shot draw to almost double that up.

And I still outlasted him.

I outlasted him because he kept playing those long shot draws. And with 8 tables the luck factor was somewhat minimized. The math started to catch up to him as the 20-1 draws stopped hitting and his chips disappeared.

And that is the thing. He will virtually always play long-shot draws. And since he plays them they are going to hit that small percentage of the time. Combine those with the chips he gets from his legitimate hands and you have someone who can do very well in a sprint type tournament.

He is the type of player that keeps professional gamblers going. He plays poorly but hits those bad percentage plays often enough to keep him playing them.

Strangely, it is almost an ideal strategy for these small tournaments. Let's look at a typical hand. Start with 3000 chips (he starts with 3300 for showing up early). Blinds are 25/50. I fold, most people limp. He gets in for 50 with a 6/10 off.

Flop comes Ace/7/2 rainbow. Someone bets the Ace, say...200, a not unusual bet. Someone else raises another 200. Randy will call. Turn is a 9. The Ace bets 500. The other guy calls. So does Randy. Now he has laid out 1250 chips. If he hits the 8 on the river he will make almost 4K chips just based on what is already in the pot...and probably more if someone bets or pays him off on the end. Is it a good play? No, it was a HORRIBLE play. He is going to lose that 1250 chips more than a dozen times. Say he loses just 10 times on runner-runner draws for each one he hits. 1250x10= 12,500 chips. He would have to bust 4 guys and get 17% of a 5th guy's chips just to break even. But that one time he hits the payoff is HUGE. He looks down at 5 - 6K in chips and that is all he sees.

And to his credit...he is a decent big stack player. He raises often and early and does so with any 2 cards so you have no clue if he has Aces or 2/10. He puts pressure. If someone checks to him he generally commits some chips.

On the downside he takes huge risks. He called 4 times the blinds with a 10/4off the last time I played him. He will give chips back in a hurry. I never worry about being behind him in chips because I know as soon as I get a hand I am an odds on favorite to double up. If I can't have the chips I would rather have them in the hands of someone who chases statistically ridiculous draws. If John has the chips...I worry. He is a good player who gets his chips in good. If Chris has the chips...I worry. She is a tight player who is not going to give her chips away unless she has something. If Bill R has the chips...I worry because he is a tricky player. If Randy has the chips I know I have a pretty good chance of getting them.

And that is why I say he is a bad player. I would argue I am better than any of the others I mentioned except John. I have the ability to shift gears, I understand and use percentages, am careful about which draws I chase, I put people on hands, I am willing to lay down bad hands when necessary and bet with bad hands when the possibility is there. I know there are times to play a poor percentage play but I don't do it every time...there has to be a reason it makes sense. In his case...he thinks he is making the correct play.

I wish I had more time. If I played in 10 of those tournaments I would win more than 3. Oh, well. Life goes on.