Mixers, 7/17

Had not played against people in two weeks. Almost did not play tonight since I was running the game but Bob & Roman talked me into it.

I folded the first couple hands, then the third hand picked up Big Slick so I raised to 200, 4 times the big blind, 2 callers. Bert said, "You going to raise in first position EVERY time?" I thought it was pretty funny so filed it away for future reference. The flop came A/rag/rag. I raised, Eric called. Turn was a blank, I raised, he called. River was a blank, I had him on an Ace but not 2 pairs, I raised, he folded, I mucked. This was a good move as it led to a lot of speculation as to what I had held.

Won a couple other small pots and noticed a pattern. Bert was pretty close in his reads on me...but not close enough. He consistently undervalued my hands. Filed that away for future reference.

Under the Gun for the second time I pulled out chips as the cards were being shuffled and said, "Just getting ready for my first position move." Bert laughed, so did Bob, but a couple of people did not get it.

Picked up Big Slick suited, called a raise and re-raise from Bert and Eric. Flop was A/rag/rag. I raised. Bert re-raised all-in. Now that was interesting. Just a couple hands earlier he had commented after one of my raises, "He hit his card. He only raises when he has it."

First off, that means he thinks he has me beat. He also said he knew I had the Ace. I actually believed that he believed I had the Ace. So he thinks he has me beat knowing I have the Ace. What could he think I had? Well, obviously he did not believe 2 pairs. He consistently had been underguessing my hand by 2 - 3 cards so he probably put me on something like A/10, maybe A/9. He raised pre-flop so I put him on something like A/Q, maybe A/J. Everything fit. He probably had A/Q so thought he had me beat. I checked out my chip situation. If I called and was wrong I would be down to about 1200. If I was right I got rid of a dangerous player. If I was wrong I doubled up a dangerous player but then again, I had a good chance of sucking out. I called.

Oops.
I did the same thing he had been doing...I overestimated his hand. He actually raised with A/7. Some of the crap on the flop hit him and he had 2 pair. I did not hit my King and he doubled through.

Looking back, should I have called? He knows I have the Ace and still thinks he has me beat. I briefly considered the possibility of him having played something like a 5/7 and hit 2 pair or maybe even having had a pair pre-flop and tripped up. Factors to consider:

1) He had already proved when he had a pocket pair he was not afraid to bet it. A couple hands previously he had bet into pocket 8s when a Jack came on the flop, then discoursed on how he was not afraid to do so because if someone called his raise and hit something it was more likely to be one of the other 2 cards. I disagree with his take, but I also know how he thinks.

2) He had also shown pocket 4s he threw after limping in and talked about how he got away from them cheap. So he varies his play according to what the cards are. However, part of that variance was not raising up "low pairs" which is generally considered anything under an 8.

3) He is known to bluff at pots, particularly in 3 cases:
a) when it is checked to him in late position
b) when he thinks someone else is bluffing
c) when he thinks someone is making a continuation bet but actually hit nothing

4) He tends to overvalue his hands and undervalue mine. He often thinks on the second level
(level one is thinking about what I have, 2nd level is thinking about what the opponent has, and the third level is thinking about what the opponent thinks I think he has.

But does he know I think about what I think he thinks I have and what I think he thinks I think he has?

Just because somebody THINKS they have me beat does not mean they do. I have put many, many people out who were positive they had me beat but were, in fact, crushed. Of course, there have been times the reverse has been true...such as this one. I am not sure if I thought he was beat or if I let my ego get in the way and did not want him to bet me off a pot even though I was beat.

So in retrospect...I still think I should have called. Right or wrong, once Bert knows he CAN push you around (even if he has the cards), he will when he doesn't have the cards. Bad long-term investment to let him push me off hands...worse short-term investment to call him.

Well, about that time I went card dead. I went a couple complete circuits without having a playable hand and Bert had hit a few hands so he was in bully mode, raising my blinds for sure. Since I had nothing and less than 1000 chips I had already determined I was in All-in or fold mode. I got down to about 400 chips when I finally picked up A/5 clubs. Normally this is a folding hand. This time it was all-in time, and since I was so low I got several callers. And my Ace held up when nobody hit anything. I instantly picked up K/10 and went all in again. People folded, giving me the blinds and about 1500. I picked up big slick and went all-in saying "Sooner or later someone will call me." Bert did...with fishhooks. Uh-oh. Everyone else is like, "Race". I am thinking I would rather have the made hand of a pair than the good potential...but the flop gave me an Ace, it held up and I was above where I started with I think 3400. I built my way from there up to 5 or 6K and then it was time for the final table. I needed to get the consolation table going so I stepped out.

Overall I played pretty well for the most part, just a couple of interesting hands that I might have played differently...but am not sure I should have. I do know I need to bluff a bit more because the fact they think I only raise when I have it means I can steal a few pots with bald-faced bluffs...and if I make more on the ones I win than I lose on the ones I get caught on then it is a good investment and adds deception to the game.