Lydias, 7/23

This would be my first time running a game. Sadly, due to personal issues encountered by the individual who used to run this particular game, player confidence is somewhere between low and non-existent that there would BE a game. So a lot of people transferred to another league and attendance, which once was between 16 and 23 people, now was all of 5 people. 6 if you count me. Ouch.

I gave them all the extra 300 chip and they wanted me to play so I did. So I started out 10% behind. On the bright side, I never think of that as a disadvantage. When I am on my game I don't think a 10% chip shortage is a problem, although the converse is not true; if I am on my game and start with a 10% advantage it is trouble for my opponents because I have a margin for error I don't need...not that there is ever a huge margin for error in No Limit. As numerous players and commentators have pointed out, you can play perfectly all day and make 1 mistake...and be out. I have had that happen. For example, early in one game I was playing well, reading people well, making the right moves to maximize value when I had the hand and getting out of the way when I was beat, even bluffing pretty well and taking down a few pots that did not belong to me. I got in a hand with Irish. He was staying right with me so I put him on a high flush, maybe a Jack or king high...which would not stand up to my Ace high nut flush. We got it all in...and he beat me with his straight flush. I went from chip lead to almost out on one error. Fortunately, that day I was A) on my game and B) had started with that slight advantage so I had chips left, came back and placed second that night. However, it goes to show that even my "A" game does not make me invincible.

Last night was not my A game...I was not bothering to read people, was not making moves, i was just floating. About the third hand I got involved in a hand I should not have. First off, I was in the big blind and got a free ride when nobody raised. So I had no clue what sort of holdings anyone might have since everyone limped and they are willing to limp with literally any two cards...3/8,2/7, k/j, Aces....

Flop gave me a pair. Randy bet it with small chips. When he bets small chips he hit something. I know that, I just did not pay attention. I called. Turn gave me two pair. He bet, I raised, he called. River was an 8. An eight had fallen on the flop. He bet big. He bet fast. Had I been paying attention I would have put him on trips simply because when he has a strong hand he bets to get a call, when he has a vulnerable hand...or nothing...he goes all in. I did not care, I called. My two pair were a nice hand. Not as nice as his trips, though...and I was down to about 1800.

No big deal, it was not a huge crowd, just go into super tight mode, hit a hand, chip up. Pretty quick I picked up cowboys. I raised it to 300, 6 times the blind. That should clear out any marginal hands. My plan was, if no Ace fell on the flop, to raise all in. Well...apparently they don't just LIMP with any 2 cards, they also CALL with any 2 cards because nobody folded. (One guy was already out) I got 4 callers to a raise of 6 times the blind from under the gun from a guy who had been folding hand after hand. Either they all read me for being on a move (good for me), they all had big hands (bad for me) or they just weren't paying attention (bad for me). It also had the effect of making me a prohibitive underdog. Against each individual hand I was a strong favorite...and I was the highest percentage to win. But each hand...say it only had a 15% of winning. 4x15=60%...I might be 40% to win, thus a full 25% better chance than any other INDIVIDUAL hand...but overall I was a 60-40 dog. This is the peril of multiple callers and why picking the correct amount to drive out the chaff is such a key skill.

Well, the flop was pretty good for me...5,7 of clubs and a 2, red. Checked to me, I went all in, fold, fold, fold, call. CALL? Uh-oh...he flipped them up saying, "When you see my draw you will see why I had to call." He flipped up...the 4/6 of clubs. He had the straight draw, the flush draw, and the straight flush draw.

So let's calculate where I am at here; I am still the favorite...but it could get ugly. We know what 7 of the cards are. That leaves 45 unseen cards. He has 9 flush cards and 8 straight cards, though 2 of those (the 3 of clubs and the 8 of clubs) are duplicates, so he has 15 cards that will help him, 30 that won't. I am a 3 to 1 favorite to nearly triple up.

Of course, that also means about 25% of the time he will hit his card. And there are a lot of cards that will hurt me. I could hit runner-runner for the King high flush, runner-runner for a full house, but nothing else really helps. And when the first card was the 3 of clubs I was drawing dead to his straight flush.

AAAAaaaaaaaaaaaaaaggggggggggggggggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

I have NEVER had a straight flush. I have lost to his, to Irish's, to Emily's, and dealt her two of them. I have just never had one. Oh, well.

The real problem is I never bothered to think about what people might have, even when I was not in the hand. I have developed a couple of theories...Norman raises inversely according to his holding and can be ego-goaded into stupid calls. If he makes large bets in relation to pot he is probably bluffing, but if his bet is about the size of the pot...he has a good hand. He will play crap starting hands but stay with them too long. If he senses weakness, even if he has nothing, he will go all in on the belief you can't call. Problem is...these are theories. I did not bother watching him to make sure they were right..

His wife, Janet tends to bet if nobody else did...but only if she is going well. If she loses a hand or two, she then goes into a shell and can be pushed off of hands, only bets if she has it. Also, if she has an extra strong hand, she will bet an extra chip. Again...theories.

Randy; if he uses several small chips...say, 4 whites...to make a bet it has a different meaning than if he uses 1 large chip...say, a red one. Or if he bets 600 using six reds it speaks to his hand strength different than if he uses 1 green and one red. I THINK it means he is confident when he uses the large chips and that he is trying to hold onto his chips as long as he can when he strings it out by betting the small chips. But I did not pay attention and garner hard data to back that up.

Car guy: loves to slow play, will stay in on draw, will bet draws on river if nobody else did.

So I have ideas...but nothing I would bet the farm in because I wasn't paying attention. The lesson? Even when i am not in a hand, pay attention; you never know what you can pick up.