Coin Flip

After the debacle with the jacks, I step down to 2/5 for a bit. This is a mixed choice; on the one hand, starting with 40bb means there is just a couple bucks at risk. On the down side, a missed flop or two puts you in bad shape.

I manage to get down to .92 without seeing a river with a couple times folding to big turn check or re-raises. So when I pick up pocket Queens, it is part of the plan to see the river or have won by then.

UTG takes their time then opens to .15 with 3.04, the hijack flats with 5 even and, in the small blind, I go all in. This is probably my best decision, but lets think about it for a second.

The advantage to going all in is I will see the river. I have the third best starting hand, there is already .37 in the pot, I gain fold equity and have a good chance of getting at least one fold.

The disadvantage is I might be looking to triple up here and letting them see the flop, they might catch a worse hand but enough to call me. But if the flop is scary, I might hesitate. I am not a good enough player to play dangerous with tough decisions, so for me, at this point, I believe it is the proper play to shove.

It works out for me when one guy folds, the other calls with 8s and my queens hold up. But just because it works out in one instance does not mean it is the correct strategy.

Being in the small blind, if I merely call here the pot is .50 or so and I have .77 left. Any continuation bet pot-commits me so I am shoving the flop. The difference is that now they have seen the flop. If they hit something like 2 pair they call, if not they do not. It just seems like more risk for the same or less reward than getting it all in when I believe I am ahead.

So now I am at 1.65 and folding like mad. UTG opens to .15 with 5.00, I fold, middle position flat-calls with 2.57, the small blind raises to .55 with 5.00, utg re-pops to 5.00 all in and gets called by middle position and the small blind.

With this action I expect to see one of 4 hands from utg: Aces, Kings, Queens or big slick. Actually, the worst hand I expect to see from anyone is Jacks or better, weighted heavily towards pairs and one player having big slick.

UTG and the small blind each have Aces, so their moves definitely make sense. Middle position has…pocket 6s?

He had the smallest number of chips, true…but with a raise, caller, re-raise, and re-re-raise, he has to know at least one of them has a big pair, q/q+…so he is way behind and not getting the right price to call here. He needs 8-1 and is getting 3-1 at best, and that only if the blind over-calls.

I would like to think I do not make that play, but…

Having been hit by just one blind, I open to .15 from middle position with 1.60. The big blind re-pops to .46 with 5.07.

What a weird amount. It is not a pot bet…he has to deliberately make that weird amount. My best move here is probably a fold; I am drawing thin against any over-pair, and his range here is somewhat narrow…eights or better, suited Ace, maybe A/10+?

I widen it a bit because he is the big blind and I was middle position, and also because people with the habit of making non-standard bet amounts tend to also have non-standard starting, raising and re-raising requirements.

If I am behind a bigger pair I am really playing for a set as I am relatively short-stacked so any draw is going to take my whole stack and not give proper odds. So I really need 8-1 on a call…there is .32 in the pot and I have to call .31, so just about 2-1.

Curiously, I choose to think he is on a move and might lay it down, so I re-raise all-in 1.60.

He snap-calls as anyone who played the hand as he would did and his hand is at the top end of his range, A/K. IT is irrelevant that the tens hold up…I think I mis-played the hand. When he re-raised from the big blind, he represented a strong hand, and I had a medium strength pair. More caution might be better in the future.

There is really no need to get involved in coin flip situations unless I am sure I am on the positive side of it. Pick my spots better, have better results.