Quads mean nothing when you are terrible

About 60 hands into a session of 5/10, early mp open limps with 2.08, I complete from the small blind with pocket 9s and 3.46 and the big blind checks with 18.78.

I like to play a small pot out of position with a marginal hand like this knowing if I hit, it should be well disguised and might take down a nice pot.

I love/hate the flop…Ac/Jc/9d. That hits a boat load of hands…and club suited connectors, A/x suited, J/10, K/Q type hands. I would be very surprised if someone had pocket Aces or Jacks here, so I figure to be way ahead at the moment but there are some big possible draws that would not surprise me.

And yet, having nothing remotely approaching the nuts, I check my set, the big blind checks behind, and the mp limper bets the pot, .30. I figure I really want the big blind in the hand, so I flat call it but he folds anyway and we see the turn heads up with about .90 in the pot.

The turn is the 5d, hitting nothing I am afraid of, leaving the same draws. I check, he bets the pot, and I click raise since that puts him all in. He calls, shows Ah/Qd and I have him drawing dead. Too bad there was not more available because the river is the 9s, giving me quads and a modest 3.98 pot for them.

Contrast that to the next meaningful hand. I had opened pocket 10s and folded to a big re-raise, paid out a few blinds and bled a bit here and there in such ways. The cut-off opens for .30 with 2.71, the small blind calls with 12.33. I have 3.44, As/Qh, and a sudden burst of aggression, re-raising to 1.20 believing I will take the pot down right there.

MP re-pops all in, the small blind folds, and it is 1.51 to call. There is 4.16 in the pot giving me roughly 3.5-1 with an above average hand…I do not want to call, because I think I am at best in a coin flip against a pair but more likely drawing thin against Q/Q+ but I am priced in and call. He shows an even worse hand, Ac/Js, neither of us improves and I win a 5.34 pot with Ace high.

I really need to think about my play here. I thought the first guy was making a position raise with a wide range of hands, the small blind showed weakness by flat-calling. I had a decent but not great hand and figured about 80% of the time, the re-raise gets them to lay it down pre-flop, resulting in a .60 win.

So I am risking 1.20 to win .60, but I am also, as we see, priced in to calling a re-raise. Just because it worked out for me this time does not mean it was the right move.

Say I do this ten times. 8 times they fold, for net gain to that point of 4.80. Twice they call or re-raise, and against their range to call/re-raise I am probably about 40% or so to win. The numbers might not be exact, but I think they are pretty close…I think with A/Q+, 9/9+, and A/Js+ I should make this move.

My analysis might be off, but with less than 40 bb, it seems like the correct move.
And time for another exercise in hand-reading.UTG+2 opens to .40 with 10.05. The over-size open raise generally indicates a hand that does not really want action…usually low to middle pair, but not always. The high-jack, with 10, re-raises to 1.20. I put him on J/J+, maybe A/K, A/Q suited type hands. The button flats it with 9.90…a bit trickier to figure.

With the initial raiser still to come, he might be hedging his bet against a raise or might be calling with any pair or maybe something like suited connectors, suited aces, or drawing hands like J/10. With 2.75 in the pot, it is an easy call for the initial raiser and the three of them take the flop with about 3.75 in the pot.

After all the pre-flop fire-works, the flop is the 6s/4h/10d. Could hit pockets, most likely the 4s or 6s from the mp guy and 10s for the later guys. Maybe the J/10 guy if there is one, and him I would expect to raise.

It is checked around and the 3c hits, perhaps the most innocuous card in the entire deck. It guarantees no flush, unless someone was so loose they played a 5/7 or 2/5 it completes no draws…in other words, a completely irrelevant card.

MP now bets out for 3 bucks, the cut-off folds, and the button calls.

So now I am thinking it has to be something like over pair versus over pair, with set over set or set over over pair somewhat likely. There are no believable draws left, this has to be a couple of made hands.

The river is the 9c. Unless someone had pocket 9s…very possible…or the less possible, almost unbelievable 7/8, this changes nothing. The mp bets 5.85 all in.
I suppose it is possible he had something like pocket 5s and bet the turn with an open ended straight draw. Fours, sixes are also in his range, with Jacks or better also a possibility.

The button calls his last 5.70. It takes a stronger hand to call, right? So Queens or better, maybe even a poorly played hand like A/10s, J/10, 9/10 or some weird two-pair hand like 4/6 suited?

Middle position shows pocket 6s. It fits how he played the hand; try to win pre-flop, call with good odds when two people are in the pot, slow-play the probable winner, get it all in.

The button shows…well…uh…I missed his hand. Badly. Ah/3h/ He called off 100 big blinds with a pair of threes. No straight draw. No flush draw. Wow. Could he really think his threes were good here? The only hand he beats here is a King high bluff. Or pocket deuces. Wow.

UTG opens to .30 with 8.09In the hijack, I have Qc/Qd and elect to re-raise to 1.05. UTG calls and we take the flop heads up.

The flop is 7c/6d/Jh. I am probably way ahead, behind only pockets matching the board, Kings or Aces. I do not put much stock in the latter. He checks, I raise to 1.20 and he re-raises to 2.50.

Right here I should be done with the hand. A/J, K/J, Q/J are really the only hands I can beat. He is not bluffing here, he most likely hit this flop hard or has the feared over pair. There is an outside shot he has something like tens but is it worth getting involved?

My brain shuts down and I re-raise all in which he snap-calls with pocket jacks. Ouch. I got cleaned out, and deservedly so.

This is a huge hole in my game. Over pairs are nice...but not guaranteed. When I am ovbiously beat and drawing thin...LAY IT DOWN.