Hand Reading school

I notice this next hand went to show-down, so am looking at it as an exercise in hand-reading skills.

The button limps with 18.18, I fold the Qc/7c, the big blind checks with 15.78.

The button could be trapping with Aces or Kings hoping to get raised, or he could have something like a j/10, suited ace, small pocket pair, maybe a weak ace…and I going to say maybe even a suited Jack type hand. The big blind could have…well…anything.

They both check the 9h/Kh/4c flop. The turn is the Qh.

The big blind leads out with a pot size bet of .20. He could have the unlikely flush, though it is more likely he has the 9 or 4 and wanted to see what the button would do.

The button click-raises. Okay, that could be anything…flush trying to get a re-re-raise, a set, a pair, or even someone thinking the big blind is stealing.

The big blind then re-pops with yet another min-raise which the button flat calls.

So I am thinking we have a couple of marginal hands here or a good but easily beatable hand.
The river really changes nothing, the 3c.

The big blind leads out for .90 cents which the button flat calls. I expect to see maybe 2 pair like a Q/9, maybe Q4 type thing versus a small flush, maybe a pair of queens or something like that.
Or not. The big blind had pocket Aces, the button had Qs/10h. So I was right about the button, wrong about the big blind.


I tighten up quite a bit, then notice people are folding a lot. I see an early middle position guy limp with 7.74, I have Kc/Jd on the button and raise to .40 expecting a series of folds.

My plan goes awry when the small blind re-pops to 1.00 and the original limper calls. I actually play smart and toss my marginal hand into the muck.

With about 2.50 in the pot, they both check the 5s/4d/5h flop. Fair enough…big blind looks like A/K maybe…or maybe just making a move. Some sort of drawing hand for middle position.

Turn is the 9d and the small blind leads out for 1.20. Same sorts of hands as before, the button is playing this more like a draw. At this point I revise my estimate to maybe suited connectors, probably hearts.

The river is the Qs, a dangerous card for a medium pair. The small blind takes his time, then bets 2 bucks into a pot of 4.58…and the mp folds.

Time goes on, I fold lots of hands and am on life support with Ac/8c. The cut-off opens to .20 with 16.14. I am in the small blind with a hand I routinely fold even when I have enough to make it worthwhile from an odds standpoint.

This time I call for who knows what reason. Actually, I know exactly the reason. I decided to take a shot when it would not hurt bad if I missed the draw.

The problem with chasing draws is all too many people…like myself…increase the bet size on each street. So it quickly gets expensive.

Lets say I am the aggressor and open to .30 with a suited ace. I flop two to the flush so I bet…I will put in about half the pot, but more than my pre-flop, so lets say .40 cents. I am already into it for .70 and now there is a buck and a half or so. I miss the turn, bet half the pot, .75 cents…he re-raises the same .75 so I call with excellent odds, but miss on the river.

I put in 2.25 and missed my draw. I will walk away satisfied because for the most part I controlled the betting (except the turn) and will play it again the same way the next time.
All too often if I do not bet the flop or turn I face pot-sized bets instead, which is why I prefer betting; I get the fold equity and control the pot size.

But of course, even if I flop the flush draw, I am only going to hit it one in three times. So lets say I miss twice and put in 2.25 the third time…which means I need to WIN 7.75 just to break even…which means the POT needs to be 10 bucks if I JUST put in the 2.25 on the time I win.

So I usually only play for flushes in very specific circumstances; several people have entered the pot cheaply, I am in late position and can enter for a raise with an above average suited Ace or similar circumstances where I either flop with excellent pot odds or move on.

It is one of the few draws I demand better than accurate odds to play.

But here I am low on coin with a chance to double up and decide to play.

So I flat his raise, the big blind folds and with .50 in the pot we see the flop heads up.

The flop is pretty good…7s/9s/6c. I missed the flush but flopped a straight draw. No need to get too crazy, though so I check. He bets .30 and I flat it.

Turn is the 5d…I hit my draw. I check, he bets .90, I pop all in for my last 1.70. He calls.

And turns up 8/J. Great, split pot. Except the river is the 10s and I lose to his Jack high straight.


UTG, with 13.82, opens to .30 after taking their time. Middle position calls with 14.99 as does the button with 10.22.

UTG I generally give credit for a pretty good hand….10/10+, A/x suited, A/J o, in some cases suited connectors or K/q, though I weight it pretty heavily towards type one hands.

Medium position is getting into medium pairs, say fives or better, plus the above hands and maybe something like A/10. Button is a much wider array, though with a raise and call, I might tighten the list a bit.

The flop is 3s/5h/qc. UTG checks. Jacks or worse, a missed draw, or a big hand like queens.
Medium position raises to .40, I tentatively think A/Q, K/Q, pocket 5s or pocket threes, subject to revision.

The button re-pops to 1.20. I tend heavily to think A/Q or pockets that match or beat the board.
UTG calls which mystifies me. I would have thought a re-raise if he hit or a fold if he missed. A call is unexpected as there are no reasonable draws here. Middle also calls.

Now there is about 4.50 in the pot and three interested parties. The turn is the 8c and utg and mp check.

The button leads out for better than a pot-size bet, 5 bucks. He has to have a big hand, I lean heavily towards a set. Both other players call…top/top? 2 pair? A worse set? Or maybe we have set over set.

The river is the King of clubs. UTG fires out his last 7.32. I am thinking A/K or, more likely, pocket Kings with the way the hand played out. Both other players call. Got to be a set and either something like A/Q or a set?

UTG shows pocket queens so I was pretty close. The button shows…3h/8h? What? That is horrible. He over-called against utg and middle position with an 8 high flush draw?

Nearly as bad is the over-all winner, the middle position who shows the Ac/2c.

He called based on a flush draw, fair enough. He then called with a gut-shot, picked up a flush draw on the turn and rivered the nuts. He played worse than I have in weeks and got paid off huge, 36.01.

The utg had a pretty safe board to slow-play and it STILL bit him. I feel for the guy. He flopped the absolute nuts, there were no reasonable draws, he got bet into by someone drawing all but dead, got called by someone drawing super thin…and still got coolered.By the same token, I read exactly one hand anywhere near correctly…UTG. The others had much worse hands than I gave them credit for.

So a couple hands where, as a neutral observer, I had some decidedly mixed results on figuring out what they had. People are playing far looser than I credit, and I need to take that into account more often.

And work on figuring out hands better.