2 hands

I was thinking about the game where I got beat by a guy I unequivocally call a donkey. There are not many players I will call that. There are players I will say make occasional donkey moves...for that matter, I do that...and sometimes even recognize that while I am doing it. I usually make an excuse to myself...such as "oh, I had a full house, you can't lay that down." Sure you can when A) you should not have stayed in the hand that long and B) you have your opponent on quads. Why would you NOT have laid that down way back on the flop? And my A/2s all-in was a classic donkey move, though I excused it with "I had to go", which I did...but just turn in the chips! No need for that. Or I plan to limp in all night...which is a sure-fire recipe for getting down to the felt. So maybe I am a donkey myself?

So I was thinking about how I played all night at Mixers. How many donkey moves did I make?

The hand where I lost a pretty good chunk, with a couple limpers, 5 handed, pocket Jacks, raising to 4 times the blind...I am fine with that move...with one caller and a re-raise for something like 1200 more from someone I knew would make that move with a wide range of hands...I am calling 1200 to win more than 3600 if Mike DOESN'T call...and with just 300 left he is totally priced in, so I am better than 3 - 1 on my money with pocket jacks. Even if they both have Aces I think that raise and subsequent call was correct and as it turned out I was about 56% to win the hand, take 2 people out, and have a HUGE chip stack. I don't feel bad about that one. And folding to raises with garbage hands, I don't feel bad about that at all.

Actually, I even feel like I played really well for the most part. The following two hands I think show that.

Hand one: Roman folds, Mike limps, Caleb raised from the button to twice the blind, Amanda folded, I called, Mike folded. What? Mike folded? That like...tripled his pre-flop fold total for the night. I knew he was ahead, I had a hand that was either going to hit the flop hard or I was going to fold. I had watched Caleb call to the river for all his chips on a gut shot straight draw, on 2 over cards...so if I hit I was going to take him out and if I missed I was just risking 1 blind with 1-1/2 blinds of dead money. He did not like the flop but I read him for calling if I raised so I checked. Turn, river, check, check, he took it down with two over cards. I folded.

Hand 2: Limps to me, I raise from the button, folded to Amanda who calls. She will continue to call if she hits something but typically fold if she misses twice. Flop does not fit my hand, I read her for having missed but having a draw, raise, she calls, turn is a blank, I raise, she folds, I take down the pot.

On the surface, nothing too exciting. But look a little closer; against Caleb I had a 3/4 suited. I did not raise because I believed he would call any raise. I had a plan for the hand and I followed it. I lost a total of 2 big blinds...the one I put in from the big blind and the one I called. When I called there were 4-1/2 big blinds in the pot (Mike's call, Caleb's raise, Amanda's Small, my big) and Mike did not re-raise pre-flop. He would raise pre-flop on occasion but never re-raise so I was not risking a re-raise. I had a hand that could get in cheap with great pot odds (4-1/2-1) and the chance of putting someone on the felt if I hit. Although they were weak cards and bad position, they were cards that could hit hard and knock people out. Knowing Caleb, I made a plan for the hand and followed it. I stand behind this play.

Against Amanda it was a bit different. I was sort of following the Bronson Super-System theory of playing every hand while on a rush until I lost one. I had 5/7o. It is a marginal drawing hand but I knew since I had raised and hit several consecutive hands I would get a certain amount of respect for the raise. There was about an even money chance of taking the pot down pre-flop or, if I hit, taking a nice pile of chips for a small risk; at this point 4 times the blind was not a hit to my stack at all. Everyone but Amanda folded to my raise. I figured to raise the flop and turn and, if she was still with me, check the river. Flop was ragged but did not hit me at all. I read her for it not hitting her, either. I raised, she called which surprised me a bit but when the turn rolled off she liked it even less so I raised again and she folded.

In both cases I ended up playing the board. In both cases I had a plan for the hand. In both cases I followed my plan and used my knowledge of both the opponent in the hand's playing style and how they felt about the flop to make my move. I think I lost the least possible with the first (and by defending my big blind, forestalled future raises) hand and in the second case I won a hand with aggression that I would have no doubt lost at the showdown.

I think I played both hands pretty well. Both hands were hands I got involved with marginal cards, though I actually believe the situations justified it, and for the two hands I ended with a net gain.

And isn't that the end result you look for in every situation? Take the hand where their Aces beat my Jacks. If we play that hand 100 times and the stats hold up, 56 times I win 5100 (my 2K, Caleb's 2K, Mike's 1100) , 44 times I lose 2000 (my call). On wins I gain 285,600, and on the hands I lose my loss is 88,000 for a net gain over the course of 100 hands of a whopping 197,600 chips. I will take that every time.

On a lesser level, the hand with Caleb, let's say we play that hand a hundred times. His K/J diamonds was 67% to beat my little 3/4. So 67 times he wins, 33 times I win. On my 67 losses I lose 400 (big blind doubled) for 26,800 chips lost. On the 33 times I win I win at least 1800 chips (4-1/2 big blinds if no other betting ensues) for a total of 59,400. Net gain is 59,400-26,800=32,600 gain. Not a lot in comparison to the nearly 200K gain from the fishhooks...but remember, this is if no other betting ensues. I am never going to lose more than 2 times the blind in that situation because if the flop does anything but slap me in the face...say, A/2/5, then I am done with it. But when it does hit, those being little cards, I am going to be able to put Caleb on the felt 9 times out of ten.

It is marginal situations like these where I need to push my advantages.

I can't actually do the percentages on the hand with Amanda because she did not show, but let's give her something like an A/10, a pretty good hand and easily something to call with. My humble little unsuited 5/7 is 36% to win against that. So I need to be getting 1.86 on my chips to gain in the long run. Being the first out of the gate, I raised, created dead money by taking the blinds and she called. So we have almost created the correct odds with a pre-flop raise that drives out the small and big blind and gotten her to call. Now we have 9-1/2 blinds in the pot and I have invested 4 of those. I am in good shape even if I lose slightly more than the 36%, say, to a bluff. And I am in great shape if I can occasionally take down the pot with a bluff.

And this was clearly a bluff, but it was well-timed. It was on one that looked like I had cards and my opponent missed. A call would probably have been a mistake. So it was a believable bluff. And I only pull those off when I am playing well. Or at least, when I fool myself into THINKING I am playing well...maybe I am bluffing myself. I just can't get past losing to a donkey. Makes me think that, despite all this introspection and math, I am a donkey myself. Maybe I should throw out the math and reads and just play my cards as they lay at any given moment.