How to go from chip lead to out in 2 hands

Played at Mixers to hang with Roman for a bit and let traffic die down. For them, a HUGE turnout...we started with 7 and after one guy busted out we had another guy join.

To my left is a guy I have played with 2 or 3 times. Complete maniac which means when he hits cards he wins and when not he loses. To his left, All-in Dee. We don't call her that for nothin. To her left, a guy I had not seen before. To his left, Taz, and to his left was Gypsy. Then to my immediate right was Roman.

First hand I limped with J/9 from late position with several people in the pot. Flop was low, Taz bet, I folded, guy to my left called, but on a big turn bet he folded. Tazz claimed low pockets. Maybe.

Then I folded for a while to get the feel of the table. For the most part it was a limpfest but heavy, heavy action thereafter. Dee is still Dee. If she raises a reasonable amount she has something, if she goes all in she usually has nothing but will also re-raise with a super strong hand if someone has raised ahead of her. Taz also will go all-in if he thinks people will fold, as will the guy to my left.

Therefore, the correct formula is to limp into more hands than normal since nobody is raising, then fold unless you catch the nuts. If you catch them, check once, if nobody raises, make a small raise and call their all in.Easy money.

So I limped with 8/10. Flopped 2 pair. Checked to me, I bet small I think 200 into a pot of about that, both Dee and Taz called. Turn was a blank, I raised 200, Dee folded...what, Dee folded? Huh? That confused me a lot. Has she switched up her play? Anyway, Taz called. River was another blank. I bet 600, Taz folded. I wanted to set a table image of strong hands sho I showed the 2 pair.

Guy to my left got felted. He decided to deal so he moved to my seat and I moved to his. This would soon cost me because I have not played with a dealer for months so I don't follow the button, I follow the dealer. Bad, bad habit.

Folded a few, limped with 7/8. Flop came 4,5,6. I bet into it. Oops...Roman was first to act, I was acting on the dealer, not on the button. Idiot. Roman admitted he would have bet into it, instead he checked. Taz called. Turn was a third diamond, I bet into it, he folded, I showed the straight. But I had cost myself chips with my out of turn bet. Bad play.

Shortly thereafter I checked the big blind with 8/10...and the flop was 7/9/J. I raised, Taz came over the top all-in and I called. He had top pair but never improved and I had a huge chip lead.

Meanwhile, another guy arrived and ended up sitting to my right. He is exactly the type of player who puts me on tilt. He is slow and methodical about everything, even if he is folding 2/7 off to a massive raise, puts in the wrong amounts, splashes the pot, etc.

So the game got boring to me. Plus, Dee was talking on her cell, the dealer was talking instead of dealing, and the game slowed to a crawl. I got bored. That is dangerous.

So I made a crack about being the next one out.

And instantly trouble arrived. I raised with Aces. Dee called. I blind raised the flop. It came J/10/J. She hesitated. I could see she wanted to put all her chips in. This could mean any of several things.

A) She thought I was bullying and would fold.
B) She had nothing and knew that was the only way she could win the pot.
C) She was on a straight or flush draw
D) She hit top pair and wanted to bet it.
E) She hit trips

I thought the most likely was any of C, D, or E. Her hesitation led me to weight E heaviest and figured she had a weak kicker. Anyway, I knew I had priced myself in with my pre-flop and blind raises (800 and 1600) since there was now over 5K in the pot and she only had 2200 left...even if she came over the top all-in and I put her on the Jack I was calling. So I thought about it and decided she had the jack and was trying to decide if I would call. So I flat out said "Go ahead, Dee, I'll call you, let's get it over with." So she went all in, I called, and sure enough, she had the jack. But she did have a better kicker than I expected, a Queen...and that is what flipped on the turn so I was drawing dead.

I still had 3450, so it was not like I was short stack. Next hand I limped, Dee limped, the second-to-shortest stack went all-in. I had Q/J and decided it would be funny to call so I did. Flop gave us 2 diamonds. Check, check. Turn was a Jack and Dee bet it all-in, only this time she had me covered. I instantly put her on the Jack as I have seen her do it before, and also figured I had a better kicker. So I decided to think about it. I still had about 2200 if I folded. I verbally counted my outs.

I had 9 minus two for the diamond flush...7 outs. 46 cards to come, 7 outs...about 6.5-1...except then I realized 2 things;
1) there was already about 3800 in the side pot. So I would be calling 2200 to make 8200. Not near the 6.5-1 I needed...IF I WERE BEHIND.
2) I was probably ahead. Yes, Dee had the Jack...but I was pretty sure my Queen had her outkicked. Which meant her outs were either 3 (if she was not diamond suited) or 12 (if she were diamond suited)...so I was probably actually either a 15.33-1 favorite (if she had 3 outs) or 3.83-1 if she was on the diamond draw. Either way, I knew I was the favorite.

Of course, I did not bother to figure up the odds on her winning, just as I did not bother figuring out the pot odds. I did the outs counting, knew she had the Jack, knew I was ahead...and checked the time. It was 7:30. Traffic should have died down, I was ready to go, the game was boring, and THAT is how I decided to call. Forget the pot odds, forget the outs...if I won I had chips, if I lost I had no traffic.

And sure enough, she had the J/6 of diamonds.

Now, remember, the previous hand, my Aces got cracked by Q/J. This hand, I had the Q/J...a hand I normally won't play against an all-in raise.

I deserved to see that diamond roll off on the river. I cannot argue I was not on tilt, I cannot argue I did not play the last hand poorly, and I cannot argue that I cared about going from a dominating chip lead to out in two hands.

But here is the real irony...traffic sucked. Getting off I-5 onto the Banfield was BRUTAL. My evil plan for world domination was foiled once again by import drivers...(there were about 4 Washington, a California, and 2 (two) North Carolina plated cars jockeying with each other for position and slowing everybody to a crawl.)

On on the whole, I am pleased. As usual, whenever I want to I can build a chip lead at that venue. Then it depends on how into the game I am and how Roman is running whether I finish or not. I suspect you will seldom see me win there, largely because I don't care. I just want to see a few hands, get off a few jokes, hang out with Roman for a bit, and let traffic die down. So I will have a lot of blow-ups like this. I will build a chip lead just about every time, of that I am confident. And I am just as confident I will give it all away real, real fast.